Deflation Concerns

The annual wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate fell to negative in the first week of June 2009, the first time in well over three decades. The last time the inflation turned negative was in late 1974 and early 1975.

Well, though the inflation has become negative, this is not deflation in the true sense of the term. The inflation numbers as released by the department of commerce and industry for the week ending June 6, 2009 is -1.61%. One must keep in mind that this is the Year on Year inflation rate and not inflation rate with respect to the base year.

All this means is that the prices of goods in the WPI basket has decreased by 1.61% with respect to its prices in the corresponding week last year. So if Good A was priced at rupees 100 on June 6 last year, the price of that good this year is 98.39 rupees. So the benchmark index is the price of the good A last year. Simply put, this is what is called base effect. Base year being 2008.

This is severely misleading vis-a-vis purchasing power of the common man. Last year, at this time inflation was hovering in double digits. It was almost 12% (11.66% to be precise). So the prices of the goods in WPI basket was 11.66% higher in 2008 compared to its prices in June 2007. So if one compares the prices in 2007 to the one in 2009, there is a an inflation of +9.8% over two years. (suppose the price of a good A in 2007 was rupees 100, it had become 111.66 in 2008 owning to 11.66% year on year inflation. So if the inflation now in June 2009 has dipped to -1.61 % year on year, the price of good A in 2009 is 109.86 rupees. This means an increase in price of 9.8% compared to 2007) . In other words, inflation is 9.86% with 2007 as base year.

The decline in the year-on-year inflation rate during the reported week this year was primarily due to a dip in the inflation rate of fuel and power that declined because of the base effect.

On this backdrop, if one strips the WPI basket and looks at the food prices, the year on year food inflation rose to 8.7 per cent this year, with cereals, pulses, vegetables, milk and spices recording a high rate of inflation. This is in spite of the fact that inflation rate of power and fuel plunged sharply this year by 12.8% year on year (-12.8%). This is very bad sign. This is giving an indication that though fuel and power prices have declined over the year, the food prices have increased. This is pointing to a bottleneck in the supply of food articles. With not so good monsoons on the cards, the signs are worrisome. The food situation will go from bad to worse by the end of this year or early next year if the monsoons fail. Monsoon failure will plummet the power situation, the inflation numbers of which will start recording positive numbers.

Legislation wise , the food security act contemplated by the UPA chairperson is most welcome here. But Supply of food need to be augmented for this kind of act to bear fruition in the near future.

Hopefully the upcoming budget will put in some fiscal policies to augment the food supply, give financial fillip to renewable energy, augment water conservation programmes and put the right policies for food import.

Returning to the inflation numbers. The food inflation now stands at +8.7% over last year. If one compares this with food inflation last year, we are in for a surprise. Though the inflation was in double digits last year, the food inflation was 5.8% year on year. But in comparison, the year on year inflation based on WPI is negative this year (-1.61%), but still the food inflation stands at +8.7%. This is a very bad signal for the food situation in India .

Coming to inflation over the last two years, let us look at food prices. Inflation over the last two years in food has been 14.5% (Factoring 5.8% in 2008 over 8.7% this year). So the purchasing power of an individual has gone down by 14.5% compared to 2007 so far as food is concerned, assuming the income has remained constant which may not be the case.

But lets see it more carefully, the recent economic recession has had a lot of impact on the employment in the unorganized sector. Towards the end of 2007 national commission for enterprises in unorganized sector headed by Economist Arjun sengupta published some startling results. It said 77% of the people of India (about 835 million people) earn less Rs 20 a day(http://nceus.gov.in/Condition_of_workers_sep_2007.pdf). The economic recession would have worsened this situation. Major share of the earnings by workers in the unorganized sector goes in procuring food. Assuming that each worker was spending 10 rupees on food and 10 rupees in asset building everyday in 2007, he will now have to shell down 11.4 rupees for the same food.

In the light of this analysis, the food security act proposed by UPA assumes greater importance and one hopes that it will meet its desired goals.

Bahrath and Sharukh Khan.

I was supposed to meet my friend at the Koramangala(Bangalore) Shopping complex today at 1630 hours. I decided to cycle my way. Since i reached about 15 minutes ahead of schedule, i decided to loaf around the cross roads of koramangala in my cycle.

In one of the turns in 6 block koramangala, i bumped into Sharukh khan, the camel who is the bread winner for his masters Bharath and Moin.

Sharukh khan, Bharath and moin have walked all the way from Jalor in Rajasthan to earn few hundred rupees a day in Bangalore.

Bharath takes care of the camel and moin takes care of a horse. Both of them have taken a long walk with about 100 people like them and 40 others like sharukh khan all the way from Rajasthan.

Bharath told me that he walked with his darling Sharukh khan for six months from Jaloor via Indore, pune and davanagere to finally reach Bangalore.

Bharath says that the business of giving a camel ride to people in Bangalore is a relatively lucrative business for him. He said that he has abandoned his land in Rajasthan and he is no longer interested in tilling the land (Bad condition of water and power in his village).

In terms of investment, Sharukh khan (Camel) has come at no investment. He says it is his family property and sharukh khan's parents are still alive and doing similar business in Bangalore.

Business wise, Bharath says that a ride for a kid is charged 20 rupees and for an adult it is rupees 50. Total turnover per day, Bharath says is on an average 400 to 500 rupees. He says this earning of 400 rupees was definitely worth the effort of walking 6 months to Bangalore. So one can imagine the sate of affairs back home in his village.

Maintenance wise, he says sharukh khan is very easy to maintain, His maintenance cost on Sharukh khan is about rupees 60 a day which is mainly his food (Goot and bhoosa). Water for washing sharukh khan is free in avalahalli lake. (Where they stay).

According to Bharath's statistics, 39 other camels took the walk with him and sharukh from rajasthan. Bharath says, as far as he knows, 20 camels including his are scattered around Bangalore doing similar business and about 20 others have gone to Mysore, Hubli, Davanagere and other places.

Well, one can understand that he would not have had an equally lucrative business in Rajasthan, but walking all the way to Bangalore for 6 months is quite a task. This itself is the greatest investment he has made on his business.

The story of Bharath and Sharukh khan is one that of state of nation and state of Bangalore. There are many people in Bangalore who earn as much as bharath, but i havent heard much about people walking 6 months from rajasthan to earn a livelihood. (Best of the walking expeditions i have heard of is my uncle's bhajane team who walk for a Little more than a fortnight to mantralaya from Bangalore every year. Of course it is not to make a livelihood ).

But one must be happy to note here that Bharath belongs to one in the 23% of India's population who earn more than rupees 20 a day. There was a government report in the latter half of 2007 (national commission for enterprises in unorganized sector) , if i am right it was headed by Economist Arjun sengupta which says about 77% of the people of India (about 835 million people) earn less Rs 20 a day(http://nceus.gov.in/Condition_of_workers_sep_2007.pdf). Considering how India is shining with these 836 million people and who is benefiting from our 9% growth rates, Bharath's 6 month long expedition with Sharukh Khan is defnitely worth it.

It also speaks volumes about the market in Bangalore. From what bharath says there are easily about 20 more like sharukh khan in the city. So about 20 to 40 people are able to sustain in the city giving camel rides. Remember 20 more are spread across the state. Bharath adds that its 3 years since he came to bangalore and many more camels would have come to Bangalore since then.

Interestingly when i asked him, why his camel is called sharukh khan, Bharath says, naming his camel on a superstar's name will make more business for him.

Lastly Bharath remarked that, he does not intend to go back to his village. He said first of all he cannot go there leaving the camel here and secondly he has nothing to go back and do.

Know your spouse.

Today i visited Art of living on my way back from kanakpura. As i had some time on hand, i walked around a little visiting all "Divine stores" and managed to buy only something of my interest-sweets , juice and some chocolates. Other divine items were left divinely.

As i walked out of a store, i bumped into a bizarre poster which said "Know your spouse". It was a very strange poster. I assume one knows his or her spouse in all respects before getting married. Well, this is only a presumption since i am not married.

Well, its not right for me to comment on this since this was the very first time i visited Art of living. I have no idea what they do or what their philosophy is. Out of curiosity i visited the place.

Art of living apart, has the institution of marriage become so weak that a spiritual organization conducts a course for half a day to know your spouse ? Its a different question altogether that if half a day is enough to know your spouse ? As i said earlier, i stand disqualified to comment on this.

Dreams on Fire

We have all had some or the other dream, to become something or the other or to do something or the other. Some of our dreams come true some don't for whatever reasons.

It is said that all our desires are not fulfilled. This is an old adage. It is often said that man proposes and god disposes. These are being said for ages now.

From my experiences i can only say that wherever i have failed, whatever i have not been able to get,do or achieve is totally because of my incompetence and my lethargy. I do not know of any other variable which governed my failures. Certainly i cannot hold god whoever it is responsible for my failures. In one sense i am lucky since to my mind till today, i don't feel like blaming God for my incompetence.

But i met a girl in an NGO yesterday , aged probably 15 or 16. She has just passed her 10 grade (SSLC). She wants to pursue nursing. What a noble idea. All of us run in this mad rat race to earn our living and struggle hard to fulfill our selfish desires. But this girl is not one amongst us. She wants to nurse people's pains. Of course she had some inadequacies which are beyond her control.

She is an unfortunate victim of one of the most deadly viruses known to man called HIV. She was born with this virus being transmitted from her mother. For no fault of hers she has got this virus. In spite of this, she has lived for 16 years and has also passed 10th grade. It is quite an achievement considering that she was abandoned from the society, grew up in a NGO with limited facilities, seeing death of friends and inmates in the NGO almost every week.

But unfortunately no nursing school would take her. Its not also the mistake of the nursing school. Its very difficult for them too to train a HIV patient to be a paramedic.

Its an unfair world. I have failed on many of my ventures totally owning to my incompetency which are not by birth. But this young girl has all the desire to do something in life but simply she cannot because of a virus she has inherited which is not her fault. She has nowhere to go now. Nor she knows how long she will live. But at the moment her dreams are on fire.

Statistically only 30% of the babies get the virus transmitted by their mother. Medical advances have brought this number to about 5% now. But this young girl is unfortunately within this 30%.
Whom to blame her misfortune on? may be fortune itself............................

Romancing with nothing.

There are many theories regarding the origin and growth of universe. It is till today as much mystery as the origin and growth of man.

Mostly accepted theory regarding the origin of the universe is the "Big bang Theory". Though Arno penzias and Robert Wilson got the nobel prize for physics in 1978 for the discovery of the radiation from the big bang which by the time of reaching the earth had converted into microwaves, neither penzias nor Wilson altogether understood the significance of the waves they discovered until they read about it in the New york times. (Source:" lonely hearts of the cosmos" by dennis overbye).

There are and will be many controversies about the Big bang and the debates are likely to continue till the next big bang. One powerful argument which comes from Bill bryson and others is that Big bang is what they call "False vacuum" or "Scalar field". It means a quality or a virtue that introduced a measure of instability into the nothingness that was. Bill Bryson argues that its impossible to get something from nothing, he goes on to say that "But the fact that once there was nothing and now there is a universe is evident proof that you can have something from nothing".

This forms a very powerful school of thought in modern cosmology. Accepted that we have here something to see. But the axioms of science does not permit this argument. In science, the fundamental premise is that "nothing can come out of nothing". If nothing can come out of nothing how it is possible that something(universe) has come out of nothing. Linear mathematicians will quickly say that nothing is not equal to something so something can still come out nothing. In other words void cannot come out of void but something other than void can come out of void.

The fundamental virtue if i can call so here is "Nothing". This is a strange romance with an eternal virtue. People have been saying that at sometime somewhere something has come out of nothing. At the moment we have to agree because we have no choice.

Now let us look at it slightly differently. What is nothing? Oxford English dictionary defines "Nothing" as nought or "which is free from anything". So the definition is a simple linear function of human capacity to see. We know very well that Human eyesight like his intellect is too short sighted and heavily limited. Established laws of physics tell us that what we call red is everything but red. Only red is not absorbed in something which looks red. So if you are reading this blog and telling to yourself that this crackpot has written some crap in black bold letters, you have got it all correct but for the colour of the text which is everything but black. (In other words, any object which looks black is absorbing all colours but black. So in reality the object is not black. I may be opening another Pandora's box here with definition of colours).

The idea that i am trying to push here that, we know too little about 'nothing'. What we are saying nothing may be something that is beyond human understanding and perception. Even at a very basic level, nothing is a part of something. Space if we call nothing is also something (space).

So "Nothing" may be analogous to colour. There may be many many things in that "nothing" out of which "something"(universe) has come from. There may be enormous volumes of singularities and too much matter is nothing. But the fact remains that human intellect so far has not been able to decipher anything out of nothing.

What does Purandara mean?

I am having a doubt from a very very long time about the word Purandara. Purandara is believed to be the Hindu god "Indra". Purandara is also used many times with Vittala as in "Purandara Vittala". Also there was a great saint in the vijayanagara empire by name "Purandara Dasa" who championed the Bhakti movement in Karnataka in the 15 century A.D.

But i am not able to decipher the meaning of Puradara. For me its Pura+Dara. As far as i know (of course i have no knowledge of sanskrit(assuming the word is from sanskrit)), Pura means city and dara means destroyer, so purandhara means destroyer of cities. Is my understanding correct? If so why is god given such a negative name? If i am wrong, what is the actual meaning of purandhara?

To find the answer to this problem (ಜಿಜ್ಞಾಸೆ). I tried finding the solution from first principles. I referred few books and asked a number of people. Below are the set of answers i got/found.

1) The actual meaning of Purandara is indeed destroyer of cities

(http://acharya.iitm.ac.in/cgi-bin/dictionary/search.cgi?scheme=our&startrow=0&exact=yes&word=pur@dr&domain=dict&mask=0&mode=0)

(http://babynamesworld.parentsconnect.com/meaning_of_Purandara.html)

2)Purandara is given as a name of Indra as destroyer of strongholds.A link is still needed between him and Vittala.

3)"The Aryans were vigorous nomadic people. They entered India not as invaders but as peaceful emigrants, with their flocks of cattle, their household goods and gods. Soon however , they seem to have come into conflict with people living in fortified areas (Puras and Durgas)under their own kings and chiefs. The rig Veda itself speaks of hundred pillared forts of enemies that the aryans had to contend with. Many of the hyms of the Vedas are addressed to the gods for assistance in fighting these enemies and it is significant that the high god of the Vedas, Indra, is described as purandara, the shaker of cities. There is also an interesting statement about an attack on a hundred towns of an aboriginal king ( Source:Panikkar K.M. "A survey of Indian History". PP 6.)

( If this argument is to be accepted then we can say that, the high god of Vedas destroyed cities, caused harm to people and used force to drive out aboriginal people.( However we still do not know if the original people were causing any harm to the invaders.) In the modern context, if this theory is to be accepted,then Israelis are doing no harm to Palestine. If gods in Vedas can drive out aboriginal people then why cant Israel? This however is moving away from the original context. Why god is given a negative name(Assuming aboriginals were not causing harm))

4)Human body is also called pura. (Humans are referred to as Purushas because of this meaning.) Hence, Purandara means Destroyer of body. The Jeeva in a body is surrounded by many layers – External one or the first one being Sthoola deha or Physical body, and the last layer which is a cover attached to the jeeva called Linga deha.Jeeva is subjected to rebirths, everytime acquiring new physical bodies.The other layer Linga deha is kind of permanently attached to the jeeva and will move from birth to birth along with the jeeva.When the Linga deha is removed or destroyed the Jeeva is liberated and attains moksha. The destroyer of pura, the body thus liberates the Jeeva or grants moksha. Thus Purandara is a name of God, the moksha-dayaka(giver). The meaning is not negative when you look at it as granter of the greatest of wishes.(Purandara dasaru is poet saint who has called himself dasa (servant) of the God (Purandara).

This argument opens the Pandora's box and raises many controversies. In this sense god becomes self contradictory. Why at all should he create lives and grant them moksha? Should he create life in the first place and make people long for moksha? Why people go and pray to purandara if they don't get married or don't have children? Purandara in this sense of the term is supposed to be the destroyer of of body and liberator of souls. These questions can go on. Concept of moksha can be pulled on into many controversies. Moksha actually means liberation from the cycle of birth and death. I shall revisit this concept some other time. (If everyone in this world genuinely believe that the idea or purpose of life is to get Moksha, then the world must stop procreating. In that way, every couple will be helping one atma(linga deha) to get moksha.)

5)In Vishnusahasranama, 335th nama is Purandara. Its meaning is recorded as “He is the destroyer of cities. He is “Purandara” because He destroyed the cities of Asuras. He destroys the bodies of the souls, or the covering of the soul by what is called “Lingadeha” and grants salvation. He destroyed Hiranyakashipu and saved His devotee Prahlada. (This meaning is found in the book by Aralu mallige Parthasarathy).

6) Puram darayati iti purandarah. In tripura samharam (Destruction of three Cities of gold, silver and Iron belonging to Tarakasura's children Vidhyunmaali, Taarakaksha and Kamalaaksha respectively) by Siva, Bhagavan Vishnu became the arrow for Siva, and in addition, being the antaryami for him, helped in the destruction of the three cities. Since, Vishnu was the arrow that destroyed these cities, He (Vishnu) got the name "Puran-dhara" [Source "Puramoru munrerittu" - tiruvai mozhi1.1.8 (Sr V.V.Ramanujan)].  

7) Sri Raadhakrishna Sastri points out that the term puram is also used to refer to the three Sariras viz. the sthula,sukshma, and karaaa sariras. He is purandara because he has torn apart these three and is the Atma beyond these three Sariras.

Looking at the above versions, one thing is definitely correct. Certainly the name Purandara is used in the destroyer/destructor sense of the term. God has done and is doing many benevolent acts, but i do not know why a name used in a destructive sense has become one of the popular names of god.

The discussions took me to a kannada professor one day who altogether refuted the the destroyer meaning in "dara" of word "Purandara". He was of the opinion that purandara is "Sustainer or holder of cities" . He compared this with Muralidhara (One who wears/holds the flute).

Yet to find a convincing answer!!! The ಜಿಜ್ಞಾಸೆ continues.

ಮಾನವ ಜಾತಿ ತಾನೊಂದೆ ವಲಂ (ಕುಲಂ)

All through the last week and yesterday i was hearing in the radio about a sound and light show in lal bagh on 31 may and 1 June . Though yesterday, the 31 of may was a Sunday, i could not make it since i was held up with some office work. It turned out to be a blessing in disguise, since it poured heavily and i was told the show was cut short. But today i made sure that i don't miss it.

"ಮಾನವ ಜಾತಿ ತಾನೊಂದೆ ವಲಂ (ಕುಲಂ)" meaning entire humanity is one was told by Adikavi pampa, a well known writer in Kannada in the 10 century A.D. The sound and light show was based on this theme. The idea was to show that the caste system is a futile institution. The entire show was about all the great men so far who have fought against the caste system. It starts from Gunadya to mathunga to harischandra to Basavanna and goes upto Ambedkar , Dr. Radhakrishna to Ranga rao.

The rain gods thankfully kept away and the entire show was outstanding. It was performed by over 300 artists on one stage. All the artists were between 15 to 30 years of age and all were from socially disadvantaged sections of the society.

Pampa was not the first to speak against the caste system or about social stratification. There were many before him. The prominent among them was Gauthama Buddha. As a matter of fact, even Buddha features in this program.

All in all, it was a quick journey through social history of India from the days of gunadya till Radhakrishna and Ranga rao (he was a brahmin who aced all odds to educate his servant's children who were dalits and eventually saw one of them becoming an IAS officer).

To add to the excitement was simply breathtaking percussion music which was played every now and then. Listening to this sound will take one to the memories of Pooram in kerala. Of course in pooram there will be hundreds of drum players and the sound level there is not comparable to what was there here. The amplifiers gave a kind of pooram effect.

The story starts from Gunadya who was denied a chance to tell his story to the king just because he belonged to the out caste. Then the story moves on to others of the age. It then proceeds to the dwapara yuga where similar treatment is meted out to karna and Ekalavya. Then it comes to closer in history to the likes of Kanakadasa, Purandara dasa, Basavanna and Akkamahadevi. In fact the entire show is a narration of the story of this great men by a group of ladies who are abstract characters. They will be talking about the cultural setting and confrontation of these men with the social milieu of their respective age.

For me the most punching line of the show was from the character Purandara dasa. He enters the stage with words "kabbu donkadarenu sihiyo donke vittala" direct translation of this to English is very difficult. A crude meaning for this is what if the sugarcane is blunt, can sweetness ever be blunt?. Actually the song goes like, "Pushpa donkadarenu Gandha donke vittala, Akalu donkadarenu halu donke vittala, naanu holayanadarenu naama holeya vittala". Crudely put, this means "What if the flower is blunt, can fragrance be blunt, what if cow is blunt, can milk be blunt, what if i am an out-caste, can soul(or god) be out caste?

The show goes on to show the protests by mahatma Ghandi, Dr. Ambedkar and others. After the story of every great man, a group of young girls come on stage singing the song "Manava jati thanode valam".

The show ends up with a superb round or percussion followed by the complete dance by the entire troupe of 300+ artists to the tune of "Manava Jati thanonde valam". The final song sequence is a treat for art lovers

The show really did manage to give out a message and it was powerful too by the way it was enacted. There was a very interesting dialogue in the show. One lady asks the other (both of them are abstract characters), after so much work by these great man, why is that the institution of caste system still prevails in India? to that the other lady responds, caste system is like skin, it keeps coming back every time you peel it. At that moment i told to myself that, the argument is stupid.

Even though i am born and brought up in orthodox brahmin family, i have never witnessed excesses of caste system. I have spent all my life so far in Bangalore which has grown phenomenally cosmopolitan in the last four to five years. So i could not gauge the gravity of the dialogue between the ladies.

The play ended with huge applause. One could make out from the reaction and ovation of the crowd that they really enjoyed it and its definitely true. It was really excellent. So the writing was on the Wall. The clear theme of the show was to show the unity of the community and futility of stratifying institutions in the society.

After the play was over, i started walking back to the west gate. On the way there was a pay and use rest room. I decided to ease myself and then take the ride back home. What was in store?(don't panic read on).

The door of the rest room was open. I just stepped inside and saw three men having their supper in the urinal chamber. I was kind of taken aback. What a pity. They were sitting on the floor of the urinal block to have supper.

It was a bad felling (not because i could not ease myself, it was not an emergency anyways). I had just seen a play where the message was clearly about equity. If not anything, i think our society can afford a better place for these people to atleast have their supper. I took a ride back home with mixed feelings. I don't know what to conclude.